The Belief Effect: Is the ATP About to be Shaken Up in the Wake of Roland Garros

The 2026 French Open delivered on so many fronts. Upsets, drama and a long-awaited breakthrough. Alexander Zverev finally claimed his maiden Grand Slam title, defeating Flavio Cobolli in a tense five-set final on the clay of Roland Garros, taking him out of the ‘best player not to win a slam’ conversation. Yet the tournament’s lasting legacy may lie in the upsets that preceded it: world No. 1 Jannik Sinner’s second-round exit to Juan Manuel Cerúndolo after leading by two sets and a break, Novak Djokovic’s third-round loss to 19-year-old João Fonseca, and the impressive deep runs by emerging talents such as Rafael Jodar, Jakub Mensik, Learner Tien and Martin Landaluce.

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For the past couple of seasons, Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have dominated the Slams (and most other events they entered), claiming the bulk of the biggest titles and building substantial ranking-point leads, that often felt like the rest of the field were playing for second (or 3rd/4th) place. That competitive disparity can so easily create a psychological disparity.

During the era of the ‘Big 3’, it was obvious to see the second and third tier of players were so often defeated before they even stepped on court against the greats of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic. The last couple of years have had a similar vibe to it, with Sinner and Alcaraz slowly squeezing the life out of the chasing pack. However, the most recent edition of the French Open, may just have brought some of that life back to the tour.

Validating Wins and the Mental Shift

Cerúndolo’s unbelievable comeback over Sinner, Fonseca doing likewise against Djokovic, Cobolli’s run to the final and the strong showings by Jodar and others will potentially be more than just statistical anomalies. We may look back on that fortnight as an event of psychological breakthroughs. With tennis decided by extremely thin margins under intense pressure, self-belief regularly proves the difference between competing and contending.

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Fonseca captured this sentiment perfectly after his strong run: “The hard work, the perseverance, really believing in it can be worth it. Seeing that I can play with these guys… it just gives me more strength to keep believing.

Jodar echoed that mindset as he stormed through to the quarter-finals, “I will go with the belief — as I have done in all my matches — that if I do the things well, I can take the win,” he said. He also reflected on his experience this year of playing elite players week in-week out: “What I learned about me is that I can compete against anyone… but I still have to improve a lot of things.”

Flavio Cobolli, who went all the way to the final, perhaps put it in the most simple terms: “Of course I have a very different level of self-belief and awareness compared to when I started this tournament.” It’s exactly this mindset that may see a shift on the ATP Tour.

The comments from these young guns, align with some of the all-time greats in the sport. Venus Williams once offered some advice on the old ‘fake it til you make it’ mantra: “Just believe in yourself. Even if you don’t, pretend that you do and, at some point, you will.” Stan Smith also summed it up very well: “Experience tells you what to do; confidence allows you to do it.”

Zverev, speaking after his victory, reinforced how a major title can liberate a player, noting that the win “helps the belief a lot” and would allow him to approach future big matches with greater freedom and calm. It will be very interesting to see if Zverev can become a multiple Slam winner now.

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On the women’s side, similar themes emerged. Maya Chwalinska, after an enormous run all the way to the final, said: “I feel like I’ve gained a lot of confidence because I’ve never really played against high-ranked players before.” Again, it’s this sentiment that so many players are going to take from Roland Garros this year, which will make the rest of the season very intriguing.

The message from Paris was contagious. When players see peers toppling established stars, it often spreads through the locker room and to the next generation: the gap to the very top is not insurmountable at all.

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Ranking Momentum and Virtuous Cycles

The immediate fallout is visible in the rankings. Zverev’s title solidifies his standing at number three, Cobolli’s final appearance propels him into the Top 10, and strong performances by Fonseca, Jodar and others deliver valuable points. Higher rankings mean better seeding at Wimbledon, the US Open and the Masters 1000 events. That, in turn, produces more favourable early draws, reducing early clashes with the very best and giving confidence room to flourish.

This sets up a cycle: belief earned in one breakthrough fuels better performances, which yield better results and rankings. Not only that, but these players will now likely be able to come up against the best of the best more often, giving them the vital exposure against the elite that is needed to improve. That is exactly why the ‘Big 3’ kept getting further away from the pack. They were constantly playing each other, and pushing each other further.

Towards Greater Parity

The men’s game now finds itself at a promising inflection point. Sinner and Alcaraz remain the clear benchmarks when at their best, but the field around them has grown deeper and more dangerous. Zverev’s long-awaited major success removes one narrative of limitation and ‘best player without a Slam’, while the emergence of the Next Gen and their contemporaries adds extra layers of depth to the competition.

The likely outcome is a healthier, more competitive tour. Tournaments ‘should’ become less predictable, rivalries more varied (we all want more than just a Sinner/Alcaraz narrative), and storylines richer. All tennis fans stand to gain from genuine uncertainty at the start of a tournament, rather than the repeated foregone conclusions we’ve become accustomed to. Over the coming season, we could see a broader distribution of big titles, and more unfamiliar faces reaching the latter stages of Slams.

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Of course, challenges remain. The physical demands of best-of-five-set tennis, the ever-present risk of injury (just ask Holger Rune) and the natural fluctuations of form will test even the most self-believing and confident newcomers. Not every player who enjoyed a strong fortnight in Paris will sustain the momentum. Yet the psychological foundation laid on the clay may prove the most durable element. Once a player believes that they can win big matches against the best, that knowledge is hard to unlearn.

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