What a men’s tournament we’ve seen so far at Roland Garros. I tried to predict the quarter-final line-ups before the start, and I have a 50% record. Which, based on what we’ve seen so far, actually isn’t too bad. Let’s try to predict how the quarter-finals will turn out.
1. Rafael Jodar (27) vs Alexander Zverev (2)
The headline quarter-final pits 19-year-old Spanish breakout star Rafael Jodar against two-time Roland Garros finalist Alexander Zverev. Jodar, seeded 27th in his Paris debut, has exploded onto the scene in 2026 with a career-high live ranking of No. 23. He boasts an ultra-impressive 19-3 clay record this season, including an ATP 250 title in Marrakech and strong showings in Barcelona and Madrid.
In the fourth round, Jodar staged a huge comeback from two sets down against veteran Pablo Carreño Busta (4-6, 4-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2), displaying his powerful baseline aggression and athleticism. Probably more impressive though, was the mental fortitude for someone who hasn’t been in these positions at big events before.
Zverev, the clear favorite, reached his sixth consecutive Paris quarter-final with a solid 7-6(3), 6-4, 6-1 win over Jesper de Jong. The German is in the unusual position of being favourite to take out the tournament, meaning we could see some nerves if things get tight. He holds a strong RG record, including a runner-up finishes in 2024. This is their first career meeting.
Both come into the match with a 79% W-L this season. Zverev’s experience in big matches should help him prevail, but Jodar’s fearless shot-making and nothing to lose attitude could create chaos. If this tournament is anything to go by, we could expect a competitive four-or five-set battle. I think the first set is massive. If Zverev gets it, I think he wins in straight sets. If Jodar manages to get the early lead, I think we’re going to 5 sets. I’m predicting Zverev either way though.
Embed from Getty Images2. Jakub Mensik (26) vs Joao Fonseca (28)
A marquee next-gen showdown sees 20-year-old Czech Jakub Mensik face 19-year-old Brazilian Joao Fonseca in their first Grand Slam quarter-final. Both are making history: one will reach a maiden major semi-final, which means we may see some tightness from both players at various stages.
Mensik overcame a five-set epic against Andrey Rublev (6-3, 7-6(6), 4-6, 2-6, 6-3) in nearly four hours, firing 12 aces. He battled cramps earlier in the tournament, pushing himself for nearly 5 hours in Rd. 2, and demolishing Alex De Minaur in Rd. 3, but so far his body is standing up. This is welcome news for Czech fans after seeing their man having to withdraw in the 4th Rd of the Australian Open.
Fonseca, ranked 25 in the live standings, stunned Novak Djokovic in 5 sets coming from 2 sets down, before defeating two-time finalist Casper Ruud 7-5, 7-6(8), 5-7, 6-2 in nearly four hours. He is the first Brazilian man in Paris quarters since Gustavo Kuerten in 2004. Fonseca leads their H2H 1-0 (from Next Gen Finals). His explosive forehand and attacking style have been clearly on display here, and we know he will go down swinging.
This promises explosive, high-level clay tennis. Physical recovery and momentum will decide a potential five-set thriller. Fonseca’s current form gives him a slight edge, but Mensik has the better career record at this stage. It’s a toss of a coin, but I think Mensik gets this in 5 sets.
Embed from Getty Images3. Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi
An all-Italian quarter-final features veteran Matteo Berrettini against rising star Matteo Arnaldi. Berrettini, returning from injuries and hand surgery, powered past Juan Manuel Cerúndolo (6-3, 7-6(2), 7-6(6)). This is his first major quarter-final since the 2022 US Open. At his peak, Berrettini made it to 5 Slam quarter-finals in a row, including a Wimbledon final and an Australian Open semi-final. It’s great to see him back.
Arnaldi reached his first Slam quarter-final after a marathon five-set, five-and-a-half-hour thriller against Frances Tiafoe. This, off the back of a 5-hour match against Raphaël Collignon, a 3 hour match against Stefanos Tsitsipas, and a 4-hour Rd. 1 clash against Tallon Griekspoor. With the most hours spent on court by a long way, his recovery will be crucial to this quarter-final.
This is their first ever meeting, but Berrettini’s experience and serving power should give him the advantage. Arnaldi would normally aim to grind rallies and capitalize on any fatigue, but you get the feeling that’s the last thing he’ll want to do after his previous matches. Expect some passionate, Italian tennis filled with emotion here. Berrettini’s experience and Arnaldi’s time on court point towards a win for the older Italian. I think Berrettini gets through in 4 sets.
Embed from Getty Images4. Felix Auger-Aliassime (4) vs Flavio Cobolli (10)
Felix Auger-Aliassime will be looking to turn the tables against Flavio Cobolli, who holds a 3-0 H2H (all on hard court). The Canadian No. 4 seed completed a career Grand Slam of quarter-finals by cruising past Alejandro Tabilo (6-3, 7-5, 6-1) in just over two hours. He is the first Canadian to reach all four quarter-finals and is in the unusual position of being favourite amongst the remaining players, to reach the final.
Cobolli, the Italian No. 10 seed, advanced with a solid performance over Zachary Svajda after dropping the third set, and looking a little nervy. His clay court form this year has been very solid, with a 13-5 record on the surface this year. Another player who is looking to reach a Major semi-final for the first time, meaning there may be some more nerves. However, he has probably looked the strongest of the two this tournament, despite having had a fairly good draw so far.
FAA’s all-court athleticism and speed, may give him the edge in extended rallies, but Cobolli may have a mental edge over him, having beaten his 3 times. With the winner getting a look at a semi-final, there’s plenty on the line, and Cobolli might see this as a bit of a free swing, compared to FAA, who is the higher ranked of the two. The betting suggests this could be the closest match, and I tend to agree. I lean towards Cobolli on the clay though, in 5 sets.
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