Predicting the ATP Finals Participants

It has been a weird year for tennis. Injuries to both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have opened opportunities for the rest of the tour at various points this season. Alexander Zverev has won two Grand Slams, Flavio Cobolli reached his first Grand Slam final and broke into the top 10, while Ben Shelton earned a career-high ranking of No. 4 and made his first Grand Slam final in his own country. In another sign of the end of an era, Novak Djokovic is out of the top 10, making this the first time since 2002 that none of the Big Three occupies a spot in the top 10.

All that being said, the ATP Finals in Turin are just under two months away and, as of now, the only names confirmed are Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev. Looking at the current PIF ATP Live Race to Turin standings, it might seem straightforward, but based on the year we’ve had, nothing can be certain.

So, here I try to predict the six men who will join the pair.

Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz

The American, who’s been having a career year, is currently third in the Race to Turin and is in a commanding position to qualify. Shelton’s run to his first Grand Slam final at the US Open has given him valuable breathing room in the race, and it would take a significant change in fortunes over the final weeks of the season for him to miss out.

Right behind him is this year’s Australian Open winner, Carlos Alcaraz. Just like Shelton, the Spaniard is also well placed to make the final eight unless injuries intervene.

The wrist injury he suffered in April put him out of action for months, with Alcaraz only returning for the US Open. He and his team will be hoping there are no further setbacks as the tour heads into the final stretch of the season.

Flavio Cobolli

Injuries to both Sinner and Alcaraz opened the playing field for others to have their moment in the pair’s absence, and Cobolli is one of those who stepped up.

The Italian reached the final of a Grand Slam for the first time at Roland Garros and pushed eventual champion Alexander Zverev to five sets. He followed that up by reaching the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and the semifinals at the Cincinnati Masters.

Those results have transformed Cobolli from a player trying to establish himself near the top of the game into a genuine ATP Finals contender.

Unless his form drops off dramatically over the closing weeks of the season, he should find himself making his first appearance at the ATP Finals.

Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev is a bit trickier to account for. There’s every chance he could find himself out of the running for Turin over the coming weeks, but at the same time, no one would be shocked if the opposite happened either.

The Russian has enjoyed a better 2026 compared with last year and has traditionally done well during the final stretch of the season.

Last year, he reached the semifinals in both Beijing and Shanghai before taking home the trophy in Almaty. That record should give him confidence heading into a part of the calendar that has often suited his game.

Matching those performances would put him in a strong position, but then again, with Medvedev we can’t be too sure.

Arthur Fils

Fils is another candidate to make his ATP Finals debut alongside Cobolli.

After a back injury sidelined him for eight months, the Frenchman returned to the Tour in February and quickly rediscovered his best tennis. He reached the semifinals at both Miami and Madrid before winning Barcelona in April.

Then came the biggest title of his career.

Prior to the US Open, Fils won his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati, defeating Frances Tiafoe in the final.

His performances this season have shown that he is increasingly comfortable competing with the best players in the world, and his ability to deliver in big matches has put him firmly in the Turin conversation.

On current form, Fils has every chance of making his first ATP Finals appearance in November.

Frances Tiafoe

A run to the Cincinnati final followed by a deep run at the US Open has put Tiafoe in a strong position to make the ATP Finals for the first time in his career.

He’s still not safe, though. A few slip-ups could see him tumble down the Race standings.

What should be concerning for the American is that his record at some of the upcoming tournaments has not been particularly strong. In the last three years, he has not gone beyond the third round in Shanghai or the first round in Paris and Tokyo.

To make things more difficult, several of the players around him in the Race have performed well during this part of the season in the past. Medvedev reached the semifinals in Shanghai last year, while Fils won Tokyo in 2024.

Tiafoe has put himself in contention, but he will need to maintain his level over the final weeks or risk being overtaken.

Rafael Jodar

The Spaniard announced himself to the tennis world during the clay swing earlier in the year, winning his first career title in Marrakech.

The impressive performances continued as he reached the quarterfinals in both Madrid and Rome before making another quarterfinal at Roland Garros, where he was beaten by eventual champion Alexander Zverev.

More importantly, Jodar has since shown that his game translates beyond clay.

A final in Washington and a semifinal in Montreal demonstrated that he is more than just a one-surface player and put him firmly into the ATP Finals conversation.

If he can sustain that form and perhaps have a few things go his way over the remaining tournaments, Jodar could complete a remarkable first full season on Tour with a place among the final eight in Turin.

The Unlikely Bunch

Taylor Fritz has been having a relatively disappointing year by his standards.

Despite winning in Washington, his third-round defeat at the US Open was a significant blow to his chances of reaching Turin, particularly after making the final in New York just two years earlier.

Fritz still has time to turn things around, but he needs a strong finish to the season. With several players ahead of him in the Race producing career-best years, even that may not be enough.

Felix Auger-Aliassime was part of last year’s ATP Finals and reached the semifinals. His form has been strong enough to take him to a career-high ranking of No. 5, but his slow start to the season meant he missed out on valuable Race points.

The upcoming indoor hard-court swing should suit him, and there is still an opportunity to close the gap. The unfortunate reality is that he may have left himself too much ground to make up.

Tommy Paul, Alex de Minaur, Jakub Mensik and Novak Djokovic could also technically find themselves in Turin, but they would need an exceptional finish to the season combined with favourable results elsewhere.

Djokovic presents a particularly unusual case. Even if he were to put himself in a qualifying position, there remains the question of whether he would choose to compete. The Serb has withdrawn from the ATP Finals in each of the past two years because of injury concerns.

With several major tournaments still to be played, the Race remains open enough for the picture to change quickly. One deep run in Shanghai or Paris could completely reshape the battle for the final places.

Final Predictions

Confirmed: Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev

The final six: Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton, Flavio Cobolli, Arthur Fils, Daniil Medvedev, Rafael Jodar

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