The 2025 French Open women’s draw is now set. With Roland Garros’ red clay always throwing up surprises, let’s break down each quarter, spotlight the key players, and predict who might emerge to reach the semi-finals.
Quarter 1: Sabalenka’s Domain, But Threats Lurk
Top seed Aryna Sabalenka is the woman to beat in this section. She’s been a force in 2025, racking up three titles and sitting comfortably atop the rankings. Her powerful game hasn’t always translated to clay, with just one semifinal appearance here in 2023, but her form suggests she’s ready to go deeper.
Sabalenka should cruise through the early rounds, but a potential 3rd Rd. clash with Danielle Collins could test her. Collins, known for her fiery competitiveness, brings unpredictable energy that could disrupt Aryna’s rhythm.
At the bottom of the quarter, Qinwen Zheng, the No. 8 seed, is a serious contender. Fresh off a confidence-boosting win over Sabalenka in Rome and a gritty battle against Coco Gauff, Zheng’s heavy groundstrokes suit the clay.
She could face a challenge from Diana Shnaider, a 21-year-old with flashes of brilliance, in the 4th Rd. Shnaider’s been inconsistent this year, but her ceiling is high. Another dark horse is Amanda Anisimova, the No. 16 seed, who reached the semifinals here in 2019. Her Doha title in February shows she’s regaining form, though her clay results have been patchy.
Prediction: Sabalenka’s firepower and consistency should carry her to the semifinals, but Zheng and Anisimova could make things interesting.
Quarter 2: A Star-Studded Battleground
This quarter is a minefield of talent, with big names and big games colliding. Jasmine Paolini, the No. 4 seed, is riding high after her Rome Masters triumph, and last year’s Roland Garros final. Her versatile game thrives on clay, and she’ll have a lot of confidence, but she’ll need to navigate a gauntlet. A potential 4th Rd. match-up with Elina Svitolina, who’s been in sparkling form, promises fireworks. Svitolina’s experience, crowd support (thanks to Gael) and dogged baseline play make her a threat to go deep.
Then there’s Iga Swiatek, the No. 5 seed and 4-time champion (including the last three years). Her 2025 form has been inconsistent by her lofty standards, but you’d be foolish to count out the clay-court queen. An early test could come in the 2nd Rd. against Emma Raducanu, an unseeded floater who’s rediscovered some spark. She’ll be keen to atone for her belting in Melbourne at the hands of Swiatek.
Meanwhile, Elena Rybakina faces a brutal 1st Rd. draw against Belinda Bencic. Rybakina’s form has been shaky, but a solid week in Strasbourg might just bring a resurgence. Jelena Ostapenko, always a wildcard, could also make noise if her aggressive game clicks.
Prediction: Paolini’s momentum and Svitolina’s form make them the frontrunners, but I’m leaning toward Paolini to edge out Svitolina in a tight quarter-final.
Quarter 3: A Wide-Open Race
This quarter is anyone’s guess, with a mix of rising stars and proven clay-courters. Mirra Andreeva, the No. 6 seed, anchors the top half and brings the most consistent results of the bunch. Her mature-beyond-her-years game could see her go far, but she’ll need to fend off threats like Maria Sakkari, Ons Jabeur, and Daria Kasatkina, all of whom have the tools to shine on clay. Jabeur’s flair and Kasatkina’s crafty game could cause upsets, but both have been inconsistent this year.
The bottom half features Jessica Pegula, the No. 3 seed, who’s never fully cracked clay (her best result here is a quarter-final). She’s joined by heavy hitters like Naomi Osaka, Paula Badosa, and Karolina Muchova. The 1st Rd. clash between Osaka and Badosa is a blockbuster—Badosa’s lack of clay prep this year might give Osaka the edge, but it’s a coin flip. Muchova’s silky game could take her far if she’s healthy, but that’s a big if.
Prediction: Andreeva’s consistency gives her the edge to reach the semi-finals, though expect at least 1 major upset in this chaotic quarter.
Quarter 4: Gauff’s to Lose?
Coco Gauff, the No. 2 seed, headlines this quarter with a strong Roland Garros resume: 2 quarter-finals, a semi-final, and a final in the last 4 years. Her speed and defensive skills are tailor-made for clay, and she’s unlikely to face serious resistance until the 3rd Rd. where Anna Kalinskaya could push her. Kalinskaya’s clean ball-striking makes her a tricky opponent, but Gauff’s experience should prevail.
At the other end, Madison Keys, the No. 7 seed, brings power but inconsistency. Her last deep run here was a quarterfinal in 2019, and she’ll need to navigate potential landmines like Katie Boulter in the 2nd Rd, Sofia Kenin in the 3rd, and Emma Navarro in the 4th. Navarro, in particular, has been a quiet achiever over the last year and could spring a surprise.
Prediction: Gauff’s clay-court pedigree and athleticism should see her through to the semi-finals.
Final Thoughts
The 2025 French Open women’s draw is a fascinating mix of established stars, resurgent veterans, and young guns. Sabalenka and Gauff look like the safest bets to reach the final, but Paolini’s recent form and Andreeva’s consistency make them dangerous. With Swiatek’s clay-court aura and a host of floaters like Osaka, Raducanu, and Anisimova ready to pounce, expect the unexpected on the Parisian clay.
Follow The Tennis Site on Facebook and X: @thetennissite
Follow Todd Scoullar on X: @toddscoullar
Comments are closed, but trackbacks and pingbacks are open.