The final major of the year is upon us, and while it feels like this season has already been going forever, it is going to be an exciting two weeks ahead. Can Sinner put the off-court controversy behind him? Can Novak lift himself after the Paris triumph? Can Medvedev get back to another hard-court final?
We’ve had a look at the men’s draw, and have broken it down to see who is likely to get through their quarter. Read on for a preview of what might lie ahead at the 2024 US Open.
Quarter 1:
Quite an interesting top quarter. Jannik Sinner obviously the number one seed, but I will be watching to see whether the whole doping saga effects his on-court performance. Looking at his draw, I would still be surprised if he doesn’t make it through to the quarter-finals, although potentially, Tommy Paul could be a tricky opponent in the 4th round. Paul does face Lorenzo Sonego in the first round though, who is coming off the title at Winston-Salem.
Daniil Medvedev is yet to win a title this year, but he’s always performed well at Flushing Meadows. There doesn’t seem to be anyone in the way until at least round 4, which could see a match up with Stefanos Tsitsipas, or Felix Auger-Aliassime, who will likely meet in a big third round clash. Although, with Tsitsipas taking on Thanasi Kokkinakis in round 1, there’s an upset possibility.
Speaking of Aussies, there’s 6 of them in this section, but I’m not sure any will get past the second round.
Unseeded dangers:
Lorenzo Sonego
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Nuno Borges
Quarter-final prediction:
Sinner v Medvedev
Quarter 2:
Carlos Alcaraz looms large over this section, and it’s hard to see anyone stopping him getting through to the quarter-finals.
Jack Draper has had a solid year, including a grass court win over Alcaraz, but I don’t think he beats him on hard.
Sebastian Korda is putting together a nice North American swing, and could get through to the 4th round here, and at his best, is not without a punchers chance of taking down the Spaniard.
Alex de Minaur comes into the US Open under an injury cloud, and while he won’t play if he’s not fit, he’s missed a bit of tennis lately. His draw is somewhat favourable though, so if he can work his way through the opening rounds, you never know.
Karen Khachanov, Matteo Arnaldi and Hubert Hurkacz are the other seeds in this section, and none of them fill me with great confidence. Karen could sneak through if De Minaur isn’t up to it, while I could see either of the other two making a run.
Unseeded Dangers:
Denis Shapovalov
Tomas Machac
Quarter-final predictions:
Alcaraz v Arnaldi
Quarter 3:
I feel like this section is the most interesting, and unpredictable. We have Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev at the top and bottom.
The German has been in some decent form, but I honestly have no idea what we’ll see from Casper this week.
Also within this quarter of the draw, are Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune, Matteo Berrettini, Lorenzo Musetti, Ugo Humbert, and Alexander Bublik.
Bublik and Humbert haven’t been in great form, but both can definitely play on hard courts.
Musetti had a stellar grass court season, as well as taking a bronze medal in Paris. Rune seems to be getting his game in shape, reaching the semis of Cincinatti, while Fritz hasn’t had a lot of wins lately, but it’s hard to discount him.
It’s wonderful to see Diego Schwartzman qualify one last time, and to take on another veteran, in Gael Monfils, is quite fitting. Monfils has had a year I didn’t expect, and a match up against Ruud in the second round, could be very interesting.
Unseeded Dangers:
Gael Monfils
Matteo Berrettini
Brandon Nakashima
Predicted quarter-finals:
Fritz v Zverev
Quarter 4:
The bottom quarter sees Novak Djokovic resume after taking the Paris gold medal, and without a Slam title, or even an ATP title this year, he should be able to muster up the motivation for this. Will get through Radu Albot in the opener, but may be tested with potential tricky match ups against Jan-Lennard Struff and surprise Montreal winner, Alexei Popyrin. Realistically though, he should take care of this quarter without much fuss.
I don’t see the likes of Ben Shelton, or Frances Tiafoe (despite being in some career best form), upsetting the Serbian.
So that leaves Andrey Rublev, and perhaps Grigor Dimitrov as potential quarter-final opponents. Rublev made the final of Montreal, and doesn’t have a hugely stressful draw early on. Likewise Dimitrov, who, while hasn’t been in his best form, rarely loses out of turn, and should get through the first week fairly comfortably.
Unseeded Dangers:
I don’t see any unseeded players causing much havoc in this bottom quarter.
Quarter-final prediction:
Rublev v Dimitrov
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