Where to now for Emma Raducanu? A promising start to her Australian Open campaign, is in danger of being washed away, after a 1-6 0-6 demolition at the hands of Iga Swiatek.
Playing first up on Rod Laver Arena was perhaps a blessing, as most British and European tennis fans would’ve likely been tucked away in bed, hence, not bearing witness to the horror show unfolding on the other side of the world.
Iga Swiatek, the World No.2, was in total control from the outset against Raducanu, the World No.61, and at times, it appeared the difference between them was more like 590 ranking positions, than 59.
It’s easy to look at stats after a match, and create a narrative from there. But on this occasion, the stats tell most of the story.
In the ‘Winners’ column, Swiatek plundered 24 past the hapless Brit, while for Raducanu, only 9 times was she able to navigate the ball past her opponent’s racket.
Scroll down to the ‘Unforced Error’ count, and it’s almost completely mirrored. Raducanu hit 22, to Swiatek’s 12. Raducanu even had 3 foot-faults in the first set.
Raducanu was also unable to make any impact on Swiatek’s serve, with the Pole winning 28 of 35 points when a serve of any kind was delivered. On the other side of the net, Swiatek would attack the second serve of Raducanu, winning 77% of times she got a look at a second ball.
But at the end of the day, they’re just stats.
Watching the match live, Swiatek was controlling the ball with plenty of spin, and depth. The conditions meant the ball was bouncing quite high off the court, and Raducanu just couldn’t find a way to dictate points.
Raducanu’s serve was off today, allowing Swiatek to jump all over it, immediately putting Raducanu under pressure. At times Raducanu looked genuinely lost out there, and was in need of a Plan B or Plan C.
The question has to be asked, did she even have a back-up plan? At some stage in the match, it would’ve been nice to see something different. Drop shots, to perhaps draw Swiatek in to the net, and give her a target to hit at? Perhaps some more low slices to negate a little of the heavy topspin coming at her?
Or, and this is a radical play…try to get into the net. Raducanu’s ‘Net Points Won’ stat, reads 0/1. It was all too straight forward out there for Swiatek today, and Raducanu had to find a way to change things. She needed to problem solve. She didn’t, and the score-line got ugly.
After the match, Raducanu suggested she understood what needs to be done.
“I mean, today the score-line was obviously quite harsh. I feel like I look back and know exactly what I need to do, and I take it as feedback.
I’m very clear on kind of what happened out there. The score-line reflects one thing. If I’m not necessarily able to hold my service games or kind of dictate, I feel like it seeps into the rest of my game.”
There’s no doubt Swiatek played well, and both players admitted as much.
“I think today, credit to Iga, she played good tennis, but I think it was a little bit of her playing well and me not playing so well. That combination is probably not good and resulted in today.”
Swiatek admitted it was almost a perfect day for her.
“For sure I felt great. I felt like the ball is listening to me. So just pretty loosened up. At the end I felt like all the tactics and everything I wanted to do, I was able to. So I just kept going.”
However, it’s Raducanu’s job to make sure that, when her opponent is playing out of her skin, she finds a way to disrupt it. Today that didn’t happen.
But it’s not all doom and gloom for the 2021 US Open champion.
Before the tournament even got underway, there was a cloud over her fitness, and to whether she would even compete, after pulling out of Auckland.
Raducanu acknowledged that, and sounded quite positive about the start of her season.
“I mean, three weeks ago when I was in Auckland, at the end of last year, I was doing pool rehab. I think to be on a tennis court playing matches and competing is something I have to be grateful for. I started hitting when I came here 18 days ago.
Yeah, I have to take a positive that I was able to beat two top opponents in the first two rounds.”
Raducanu continued to discuss the positives out of the last week.
“I think the biggest positive I would say is how I’ve approached every single day. I think before the tournament, in tricky situations with Auckland and the back, how I handled myself going into the tournament, not necessarily the most prepared. Then I’d say even how I kind of handled the match today, it’s quite different and I have to be proud of myself and give myself a pat on the back.
I think one of my goals for this year is to just be consistent, ride with it. I think today is going to be a really good test in a sense, but also I’m going to look back and be like, I learnt a lot from it and got a lot of feedback of what I need to do better.
I think the thing I want to improve is serving. The first two matches I got away with it against two top players because I was able to defend and move, use the rest of my game. But I think that needs to improve.”
One of the most under-rated, and rarely talked about stats, is Raducanu’s lack of experience. There’s an easy temptation to believe that because she has won a Grand Slam, she should be one of the most credentialled players on tour.
That is far from the case. Of the top 100 players, 98 of them have played more matches on the WTA tour. Only Mirra Andreeva, and the World No.100, Yuliia Starodubtseva have played less.
Raducanu has only played 30 Grand Slam matches. She has only played 9 matches against top 10 players in her career so far.
The inexperience of Raducanu is still clear to see. Her well-documented injuries have prevented her from gaining that match knowledge week in week out against the best in the world.
If a player like Raducanu is exposed to quality players every week, she will improve quickly. Practice courts are great for working on technique, but you don’t problem solve on a practice court. The only way to learn how to win matches in different ways, is to play a lot of different matches.
If Raducanu is able to keep her body healthy, she needs to be on the match court. She’ll learn how to win matches in a number of ways, against a number of different styles. Only then, will we truly see Raducanu’s ceiling.
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