Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner play each other for the 17th time on Sunday, with the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters and world No. 1 status on the line.
Alcaraz and Sinner H2H on Clay
Alcaraz leads Sinner 3-1 on clay and 10-6 overall.
The pair first played on the surface back in the Umag final in 2022, where Sinner came out on top in three sets.
Since then, Alcaraz has dominated results-wise, but it hasn’t been plain sailing. While the 2025 French Open final (where Alcaraz saved three match points) immediately comes to mind, the Spaniard also came out on top in a narrow encounter in the semi-finals at Roland Garros the year before.
While he led 2-1, Sinner was unable to progress to the final, despite winning two more points than his opponent in that match.
Their sole clay Masters 1000 final came in Rome last year. Alcaraz edged the tie-break in the first set, before dominating the second to win the title in Italy.
Their Routes to the Monte Carlo Final
Alcaraz
R2: Sebastian Baez (6-1, 6-3)
R3: Tomas Martin Etcheverry (6-1, 4-6, 6-3)
Quarter-final: Alexander Bublik (6-3, 6-0)
Semi-final: Valentin Vacherot (6-4, 6-4)
Sinner
R2: Ugo Humbert (6-3, 6-0)
R3: Tomas Machac (6-1, 6-7 (3), 6-3
Quarter-final: Felix Auger Aliassime (6-3, 6-4)
Semi-final: Alexander Zverev (6-1, 6-4)
*Both players had byes into the second round
While the world’s best have both looked close to flawless other than in their third round matches, a closer observation suggests one has been nearer to it than the other…
Prediction
In their recent battles on clay, Alcaraz has come out victorious, aiming for his fifth Masters 1000 title on the surface, while Sinner still searches for his first.
Most bookmakers have both players just under evens. Many people may favour the world No. 1. However, Sinner’s serve has been stronger this tournament, and excellent throughout the preceding two Masters.
He was only broken by Machac at this competition. Zverev failed to even earn a break point in their semi-final. Alcaraz has been broken in every match so far in Monte Carlo, even in his dominant win over Bublik.
Sinner’s serve could well be the deciding factor here; various bookmakers have him winning 2-0 around the +200 mark, which looks favourable.
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