The French Open draw has now been done. There’s enough previews on who the top seeds will face en-route to the finals, so it’s time for a preview to rate the chances of an unseeded player making a deep run.
Over the last ten years, Roland Garros hasn’t thrown up a lot of surprises on the men’s side. Unseeded players rarely make it through to the second week. Here are the last remaining unseeded player in the draws, over the last decade:
2023: Tomas Etcheverry – QF’s
2022: Holger Rune – QF’s
2021: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – QF’s
2020: Jannik Sinner – QF’s
2019: No one made the QF’s, but 4 players made 4th round
2018: Cecchinato – SF’s, but was the only unseeded player in the QF’s too
2017: No players in the QF’s, but 4 into the 4th round
2016: Albert Ramos-Vinolas – QF’s
2015: 3 players into the 4th round
2014: 3 players into the 4th round
As you can see, if you’re outside of the top 32 players, you’re likely to be packing your bags by the middle weekend. So what are the chances of that remaining as the pattern in 2024?
Let’s have a look at the top chances from the unseeded players. Who might get through to the quarter-finals or beyond?
First quarter:
The first quarter of the draw is dominated by the world number one, Novak Djokovic. However, we all know the Serbian hasn’t been in the finest of form, so if someone can cause an upset early, things will really open up here. The bottom of that quarter sits Casper Ruud, who I think will go very close to winning this title. Obviously, that means there will be very limited opportunities for an unseeded player to sneak through.
Thiago Seyboth-Wild: The Brazilian is at a career high of 58, and while he hasn’t really made a deep run in an event this year, he’s been quite consistent with his form. Clay is his best surface (although he doesn’t mind the hardcourt), and if he can get over Gael Monfils in the first round, he’ll likely take on Lorenzo Musetti, who hasn’t been setting the world on fire this year – at least at ATP level. I think Seyboth-Wild is good enough to get through to the third round, but unfortunately for him, he’ll run into Djokovic. While I certainly wouldn’t predict an upset result, we just don’t know which Novak is going to show up to Paris at the moment.
Botic Van de Zandschulp: A genuine unseeded player, currently ranked at 100, but has been as high as 22. A quick scan of his season so far certainly doesn’t reveal a lot of positivity about his chances, but when you look a bit closer, his losses have often been to very good, top 30 players. Sinner (twice), Ruud, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Humbert (twice), have all been too good for the Dutchman. But his draw isn’t terrible here. Fognini in the first round could go either way. He’d then face Tommy Paul, who, while a class above, isn’t as comfortable on the clay, so there’s a possibility of an upset there. A likely third round against Francisco Cerundolo would be another big test, but stranger things have happened.
Second Quarter:
The second quarter has the most credentialled unseeded player in history, with Rafael Nadal draw to take on the 4th seed, Alexander Zverev. I’m not sure who will be more nervous, but I think it might be the German. Khachanov, De Minaur and Medvedev are all in this quarter, and while they’re all solid players, they’re also all vulnerable I feel.
Rafael Nadal: Rafa was always going to be a dangerous floater, and it just so happens, he’s drawn one of the favourites for the title in the first round. His form has been a little up and down, but Roland Garros tends to bring out his best. While he may have been leaving a little in the tank during Madrid and Rome, one gets the feeling he’ll be leaving nothing out on the court in pursuit of a win this fortnight.
Luciano Darderi: Another up and coming Italian, who is currently at his highest ranking of 47. With wins this season over Arnaldi, Navone, F.Cerundolo, Monfils, and Baez, he’s a proven clay-courter. A winnable match against Rinky Hijikata in round 1, followed by a possible second round with Tallon Griekspoor, Darderi could find himself in a round 3 clash with a potentially vulnerable Nadal. A few things have to go right, but he’s shown enough to be considered a threat.
Jan-Lennard Struff: The big serving German has shown his clay court credentials this season, winning his maiden ATP title in Munich, in cold, slow conditions, defeating Holger Rune, and Taylor Fritz along the way. He has also taken it right up to Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid and Rome. If he gets through his first match against a qualifier, he’s likely to take on Alexander Bublik, followed by Alex de Minaur, and then Daniil Medvedev. It would be quite a run if he was able to get through that, but taking each clash in isolation, it would be no great surprise if he was able to defeat any or all of them.
Tomas Machac: The Czech was on my radar before he decided to take out Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals of Geneva. He will be at a career high after this week, and having beaten the likes of Etcheverry, Tiafoe, Musetti, and Rublev this year, he’s going to have plenty of confidence in Paris. He will have to overcome Nuno Borges, Mariano Navone, and Daniil Medvedev to give himself a chance of going deep, but recent form couldn’t rule him out.
Third Quarter:
Stefanos Tsitsipas, Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev look the most likely quarter-final challengers, and I don’t see a lot of unseeded players likely to make a run. Players like Lorenzo Sonego, Emil Ruusuvuori, and Matteo Arnaldi have shown potential in past seasons, but I haven’t seen enough of that form to warrant a deep run here. Of those three, the Finnish player has the best draw on paper, and if he strikes a rich vein of form, he could potentially sneak through a few rounds. But I can’t have him as one of the top chances at this stage.
Fourth Quarter:
If Jannik Sinner is fit enough, it’s hard to see him not making at least the quarter-finals. But if he isn’t 100%, there could be some opportunities for lower ranked seeds to get through. The likes of Hubert Hurkacz, Nicolas Jarry, and Alejandro Tabilo would really give themselves a chance. I would really like to include Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka as unseeded players who could find themselves into the second week, but I just can’t see them getting past the third round at best. I don’t envision many unseeded players challenging for the title coming from this quarter.
Denis Shapovalov: We know what kind of talent the Canadian possesses, but over the last few years, we just haven’t seen it enough. This year, he has defeated (Tsitsipas on hard court), Etcheverry and Diaz Acosta on clay. If he can get through a tricky first match against Luca Van Assche, he will (probably) be faced with a match-up against Frances Tiafoe, who has also been severely out of form. The next seed in his section would be Hurkacz, who would be favourite, but at his best, Denis could definitely take it up to him.
Time will tell if an unseeded player can make some of their own history this week. It’s unlikely, but it’s also what makes tennis exciting and unpredictable. Bring on the tournament.
Take a read of our Women’s preview here.
