The draw for the Australian Open is now out, and we’re running our eye over it to see what might play out. We could go right in depth, but we all know by the end of day 1, half our predictions are out the window anyway. So here is a very quick preview of the men’s draw. For our Women’s preview, click here.
Quarter 1:
Carlos Alcaraz obviously looms large over this part of the draw, and if we’re honest, it’s hard to see anyone troubling him until at least the quarter-finals. Alex de Minaur is the next highest seed, and he is drawn to take on Matteo Berrettini, which is probably as unlucky as you can get as a seeded player in Rd.1. Berrettini holds a 3-2 record over De Minaur, and beat him as recently as the Miami Masters last year. The dark horse in this section has to be Alexander Bublik. He’s won 5 titles in the last 12 months, and has beaten De Minaur the last 2 times they’ve met.
Predicted quarter-final: Alcaraz v Bublik
Quarter 2:
Quarter 2 has a few more live chances than the top section. Alexander Zverev, as the 3rd seed, shouldn’t have too many issues with making it to the 4th Rd. But a match-up against Andrey Rublev could be tricky. It’s hard to know which Rublev is going to turn up these days, but if he brings his best, he can, and has beaten Zverev in the past.
The other little section has Daniil Medvedev and Felix Auger-Aliassime on track for Rd.4 showdown. Auger-Aliassime is yet to really prove himself in Slams, while Medvedev is definitely finding some form, and loves the Melbourne hardcourt. Close watch on Learner Tien this year too, as he becomes a seeded player, and could cause some trouble.
Predicted quarter-final: Alexander Zverev v Daniil Medvedev
Quarter 3:
The bottom half of the draw becomes interesting in quarter 3. Lorenzo Musetti, and Novak Djokovic are the top seeds, but both have had some issues with their body leading into the event. Djokovic looks to have a pretty safe draw through the first week, although a 3rd Rd. meeting with Brandon Nakashima will test him, after Nakashima reached the Brisbane final. Then he would likely face Jakub Mensik, who can definitely play on hardcourt. But Hubert Hurkacz is also lurking, and has started the year in very good form.
The top section of this quarter has Musetti, but a host of other big names, including Taylor Fritz, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Jiri Lehecka, and Stan Wawrinka. I think Fritz is probably too good to not get through, but there might be some very interesting matches here.
Predicted quarter-final: Fritz v Djokovic (if his body doesn’t hold up, Mensik has a great chance to make a run).
The bottom quarter has Jannik Sinner at the foot of the draw. Hopefully we get a 3rd Rd. match-up against Joao Fonseca, which would give us a really good look at where the young Brazilian sits. His back has been giving him some issues, so hopefully he’s fit enough to put up a fight.
Ben Shelton has played well in Melbourne recently, but I’m yet to be convinced he’s a genuine title threat. Players like Ugo Humbert in Rd.1, and Valentin Vacherot potentially in Rd.3, will test him. Casper Ruud is also in this section, but he’s said he may need to go home if his wife goes into labour. It will be interesting if he makes the quarter-finals to see what his decision is then. We could also see Denis Shapovalov do some damage here too. The fact that we have to see a loser from the Dane Sweeny and Gael Monfils clash is somewhat disappointing.
Predicted quarter-final: Ben Shelton v Jannik Sinner
Take a look at our Women’s draw preview here.
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