The 2025 Mutua Madrid Open men’s singles final is set to deliver a thrilling clash on Sunday, May 4, as Great Britain’s Jack Draper takes on Norway’s Casper Ruud at La Caja Mágica. This marks the first-ever ATP Tour meeting between the 5th seeded Draper and the 14th-seeded Ruud, promising a fresh battle for one of the most prestigious clay-court titles outside the Grand Slams. With both players yet to drop a set in Madrid, something must give in this blockbuster showdown. Here’s a deep dive into their paths to the final, recent form, playing styles, and what to expect.
The Road to the Final
Jack Draper (World No.6)
Draper, the 23-year-old British No. 1, has been a revelation this season, and his Madrid campaign has solidified his status as a rising star. After a bye in the 1st Rd, he kicked off with a 6-3, 6-4 victory over Tallon Griekspoor. A walkover from Matteo Berrettini in the 3rd round gave him extra rest, which he capitalized on with a 6-2, 6-2 demolition of 11th seed Tommy Paul in the 4th Rd. In the quarterfinals, Draper dished out a 6-0, 6-4 thrashing to Matteo Arnaldi, securing his debut in the ATP top five. He then outlasted 10th seed Lorenzo Musetti 6-3, 7-6(4) in a high-quality semifinal, winning 77.6% of first-serve points and striking 19 winners against 19 unforced errors.
Draper and Musetti have been facing each other for years, and the quality gets better and better.
“We played a few times in the juniors. It’s so nice to play with someone you’ve grown up with.. and to both be living out your dreams on the biggest courts. That’s something I was thinking before the match. But at the same time it’s a battle out there. I think both of us have grown as players and people in the last 12, 14 months since we last played. I think that showed on the court today. I’m proud of that.”
On facing Ruud, Draper added,
“I think it gives a little bit of calmness within to know I’ve won one. But Casper is such an experienced player. Someone who’s made Grand Slam finals.. two on the clay at Roland Garros. He’s a complete pro and someone who always gives his best and is so tough to beat. He’s in the final. He’s playing well. I have to bring my A game for sure.”
Casper Ruud (World No.15)
Ruud, a two-time Roland Garros finalist, has rediscovered his clay-court prowess in Madrid after an inconsistent 2024. The 26-year-old also received the opening round bye and started with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Arthur Rinderknech, followed by a 6-3, 6-3 rout of Sebastian Korda.
He then upset 3rd seed Taylor Fritz 7-5, 6-4 in the 4th Rd. and outclassed 9th seed Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 7-5 in the quarter-finals, earning his 1st career win over the Russian. In the semi-finals, Ruud battled through a rib issue to defeat Francisco Cerundolo 6-4, 7-5, saving an astonishing 15 of 18 break points in a nearly 2-hour match.
Ruud’s perseverance shone through despite physical challenges.
“I wasn’t sure I was gonna be able to finish the match honestly. I felt something in my rib during the warm up just towards the end before going out. I felt it almost every shot. Especially the serve. Luckily I got some quick treatment on it. There’s not too much you can do. You only have 3 minutes. I will go check it out more now. I had a couple of painkillers, which is not the ideal thing but in a situation like this you have to do it every now and then.”
Reflecting on his 3rd Masters 1000 final appearance, Ruud said,
“To be back in a Masters 1000 final feels great. It’s not every day you get to play for these titles. I’ve been in two finals before and lost both, so hopefully it’ll be third time is a charm.”
Head-to-Head and Playing Styles
This will be the maiden ATP encounter between Draper and Ruud, with their head-to-head standing at 0-0. Their contrasting styles set us up for a fascinating tactical battle on Madrid’s fast clay, where higher altitude favors bigger servers and aggressive play.
Draper, a left-hander, has transformed his game into a complete package. His booming serve—winning 71% of service points against Musetti—and lethal forehand have been devastating in Madrid. His ability to transition from baseline to net, coupled with deft drop shots, makes him a difficult player to compete against.
His 82.6% win rate this season (19-4) underscores his consistency, with titles at Indian Wells and a final in Qatar.
Ruud, a clay-court specialist, thrives on heavy topspin and relentless baseline play. His powerful forehand and one-handed backhand generate wicked spin, while his improved serve has been key in Madrid.
With 11 of his 12 ATP titles on clay, Ruud is right at home on the surface, though that hip injury from the semifinal could be a concern.
Recent Form and Key Stats
• Draper: Not dropping a set this week, Draper’s 2025 highlights include a Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells (def. Holger Rune 6-2, 6-2) and a Qatar Open final (lost to Andrey Rublev). His clay form was a little shaky earlier, with a round of 16 loss in Monte Carlo, but Madrid has been a breakthrough.
• Ruud: Also perfect in sets in Madrid, Ruud’s season started with a 2nd Rd. Australian Open exit, but rebounded with a Dallas final and a Barcelona quarter-final. His Madrid run, including wins over top-10 players Fritz and Medvedev, has propelled him back to No.10 in the live ATP rankings.
• Key Stat: Draper’s first-serve win percentage (78% vs. Musetti) could exploit Ruud’s return game, but Ruud’s break-point defense (15/18 saved vs. Cerundolo) shows his clutch game under pressure is on-song.
Prediction
This final pits Draper’s explosive, all-court game against Ruud’s clay-court experience. The faster Madrid clay suits Draper’s serve and forehand, giving him a slight edge, especially if Ruud’s injury lingers. However, Ruud’s extra experience in high-stakes matches—2 Grand Slam finals and 2 prior Masters 1000 finals—could make a difference.
Draper’s momentum and power should keep him competitive, but Ruud’s ability to grind and counter-punch could wear down the Brit in crucial moments. Expect a tight, physical battle, with Ruud’s experience tipping the scales – unless his injury gets worse.
Prediction: Casper Ruud def. Jack Draper 6-4, 4-6, 7-5
Follow The Tennis Site on Facebook and X: @thetennissite
Follow Todd Scoullar on X: @toddscoullar
Comments are closed, but trackbacks and pingbacks are open.