Compared to the men over the last ten years, the women’s draw has been slightly more unpredictable. At least in the sense that more unseeded players tend to make it a little deeper into the tournament (I’m not so certain that will happen this year though).
Here are the last remaining unseeded female players across the previous decade:
2023: Karolina Muchova – Runner-Up
2022: Sloane Stephens – Semi-final
2021: Barbora Krejcikova – Champion / Tamara Zidansek – Semi-finals
2020: Iga Swiatek – Champion / Nadia Podoroska – Semi-finals / Martina Trevisan, Danielle Collins, Laura Siegemund – Quarter-finals
2019: Marketa Vondrousova – Runner-Up / Amanda Anisimova – Semi-finals
2018: Yulia Putintseva – Quarter-finals
2017: Jelena Ostapenko – Champion (only unseeded player into the quarter-final stage)
2016: Kiki Bertens – Semi-finals / Yulia Putintseva, Shelby Rogers, Tsvetana Pironkova – Quarter-finals
2015: Alison Van Uytvanck – Quarter-finals
2014: Garbine Muguruza – Quarter-finals
As you can see, it’s not unusual for multiple unseeded players to make it through to the second week. Can we expect something similar for the 2024 edition, or will the top seeds dominate in Paris over the next fortnight?
First Quarter:
Iga Swiatek clearly dominates this section, and it’s honestly hard to see anyone giving her much trouble before the quarter-finals (or beyond). With Marketa Vondrousova, and Danielle Collins also lurking, who might cause some upsets to sneak them through the field?
Naomi Osaka: Naomi has started to find a little form, reaching the fourth round of Rome, however, Roland Garros has never been her favourite event. Making things even harder, is the fact that she’ll have to face Iga Swiatek in the second round. While I can’t see her getting beyond that, the fact that she is a multiple Grand Slam winner, means she has to be included – just in case Swiatek goes down with an injury perhaps.
The only other players in my opinion, who have the potential to go on a run, are Donna Vekic, Laura Tsurenko, and Martina Trevisan. But none of that trio have shown much form over the last month, so I can’t have them at this stage.
Second Quarter:
With Coco Gauff and Ons Jabeur up either end of this quarter, someone will have to cause a major upset to get through. Jelena Ostapenko, Dayana Yastremska, and Caroline Garcia would also fancy their chances at winning some matches here.
Amanda Anisimova: The 2019 semi-finalists looked like she was starting to get some form back during the Australian summer swing, but her form of late on the clay, has been less than inspiring. She does have good memories here, and clearly the clay holds no worries for her. Her draw isn’t bad early on, with Slovakian qualifier, Rebecca Sramkova first up, then a likely clash with Liudmila Samsonova. From there, it could be Beatriz Haddad Maia, before Coco Gauff would likely await in the 4th round. Making the quarter-finals would be a shock, but there are winnable matches for Amanda here.
Sofia Kenin: The American has her best Grand Slam record on the clay at Roland Garros, having been runner-up in 2020, and reaching the 4th round twice. Kenin finished last year off strongly, but has been out of form during 2024, so it would need a fast turn-around to again go deep in Paris. Her draw is not great, taking on Laura Siegemund, then likely Caroline Garcia, and Jelena Ostapenko. It would take a huge performance, but she has runs on the board.
Third Quarter: Elena Rybakina drops into this quarter, and is the obvious fancy to make it through. Elena Svitolina and Jasmine Paolini would also like their chances in this quarter. At the top, sits Australian Open finalist, Qinwen Zheng, but her form since then, has been very ordinary, possibly opening the door for someone to sneak through. But who? To me, there’s not a lot of unseeded players with much form to choose with any confidence.
Sara Sorribes-Tormo: I like her form leading into this event. She’s defeated Victoria Azarenka, and Elena Svitolina on the clay. She also made the fourth round here last year, and draws Bianca Andreescu first up. It obviously gets harder from there, but she’s capable of knocking off Anna Kalinskaya, and possibly Jasmine Paolini if she gets hot.
Fourth Quarter:
Aryna Sabalenka, Madison Keys, and Maria Sakkari oversee this bottom section of the draw. All have been in very good form, and I expect two of those three to get through to the quarters. But upsets do happen, and there are a couple of players, who could possibly take advantage if one of them falls over unexpectedly.
Mirra Andreeva: Sitting just out of the seedings, she will definitely be a dangerous player. Made the quarter-finals of Madrid, taking out 3 players ranked higher than her, before going under to Aryna Sabalenka. Her draw sees her take on American Emina Bektas, before likely clashes with Victoria Azarenka and Daria Kasatkina. Far from easy, but she’s shown enough in her young career to suggest it’s possible.
Paula Badosa: Great to see Paula back into some sort of form, making the quarter-finals of Rome, where she defeated Mirra Andreeva in the first round. She also pushed Coco Gauff to 3 sets, so clearly, she’ll be trouble for the seeds here. The problem she will have here is her draw. She takes on Katie Boulter first up, then possibly Sloane Stephens, and Aryna Sabalenka. If she makes it through, she’ll earn it. But we all know how talented she is.
Moyuka Uchijima: Moyuka is one of the most in-form players in the field, so I couldn’t leave her out of this. The Japanese number 80 won her 3 qualifying matches without dropping a set. That places her on an 18 match winning streak, having taken out 3 ITF titles in a row. While yes, the ITF circuit is a couple of steps below a Slam, winning form is good form. Uchijima takes on another qualifier first up, but will then run into Aryna Sabalenka. She’ll be long odds to get through that, but confidence shouldn’t be an issue. If Aryna is off her game 10%, just maybe….
In summary, this year feels unlikely that we’ll see any great surprises move into the second week. The top seeds seem to be a class above, and there are a whole host of quality players just below them. I think this event might show how valuable it is to get one of those 32 coveted seeding spots.
Check out our men’s preview here.
